Trade between Africa and China looks set to reach the targets offered in 2021; but what will it take to shift it toward value addition on the continent?

August 15th, 2024 Opinion by Rosie Wigmore Image : FADEL SENNA/AFP

In 2021, at the eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China pledged to import total African products worth $300bn over three years. This was not an overly ambitious target given that, based on Chinese import figures, Africa exported $275bn worth of goods to China between 2019 and 2021. Indeed, China has been Africa’s largest bilateral export destination since 2009. Nevertheless, it was still an important target because it was not only the first import target that China had set for Africa, it was also the first import target that had been set for Africa by any development partner.

A key reason for the target was to respond to African demands to reduce growing trade imbalances between Africa and China. To help reach the target, China also announced a range of supportive trade initiatives at FOCAC including $10bn worth of trade financing to boost African exports to China, “green lanes” to fast-track African agricultural exports to China, online shopping festivals to promote and sell African products in China and further increase the scope of African products enjoying zero-tariff treatment.

The good news for Africa is that this target is very likely to be met. Between January 2022 and June 2024, and again based on Chinese import figures, African countries have exported a total of $286bn worth of goods, meaning China has to import just an additional $14bn worth from Africa over the coming months to reach the target. From this perspective, the target has worked: it’s been a success.

The bad news is that over the same period Africa’s trade deficit with China actually widened. For example, in 2021 the trade deficit was $39bn and by 2023 it was $63bn. Furthermore, while there was some diversification, in 2023 just nine African countries, all resource-rich countries, accounted for 83% of exports with China and this trend has continued into 2024.
How to build on trade success

So what can be done in the next iteration of FOCAC to build on the success while also recognising the shortcomings of the target? Continue reading After $300bn promise, what next for Africa’s exports to China? →

he International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the continent’s economic growth will reach 3.5% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.

Some of the factors fuelling this optimism include the fact that inflation has almost halved, public debt ratios have broadly stabilised, and several countries have issued Eurobonds this year, ending a two-year hiatus from international markets.

“After peaking at almost 10% in late 2022, inflation has nearly halved to around 6% in the early part of the year thanks to decisive action by central banks,” Abebe Aemro Selassie, the director of the African department at the IMF, told reporters during the Fund’s spring meetings this April.

He emphasised that lower inflation has translated to slower food price increases, terming this as a “positive development” for a region where the cost-of-living crisis has been acute in recent years. “In addition, fiscal consolidation efforts are starting to pay off, with the median public debt stabilising at around 60% of GDP, halting a 10-year upward trend,” he observed.

Not out of the woods yet

“These are encouraging signs. But the region is not out of the woods yet,” cautions Selassie, citing concerns around high borrowing costs amid a crippling funding squeeze facing several countries on the continent. “Far too many countries still face a funding squeeze. Their borrowing costs are high, and funding sources curtailed. Government interest payments now account for about 12% of revenues, more than double the level a decade ago. And official development assistance has become scarcer.”

The impact of these challenges on Africa is significant. Rather than increasing investment in critical areas such as health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure – sectors that can drive development and lift millions out of poverty – governments are allocating essential funds toward debt servicing. This has implications for the region’s growth prospects and its ability to withstand future shocks, argues Selassie, who oversees the IMF’s operations and engagement with 45 countries across sub-Saharan Africa.

He believes that in the face of these challenges, governments in the region should prioritise domestic resource mobilisation, laying emphasis on tax policies that help governments cut their deficits. Specifically, he called for African countries to “cut back tax expenditures” that undermine equity. Tax expenditures are special provisions in the tax code – such as exclusions, deductions, deferrals, credits, and preferential tax rates – that benefit specific activities or groups of taxpayers. He also called for continued digitization of tax procedures to boost efficiency and transparency.

Getting African countries to pay more tax, while ensuring that the burden is equitably shared and economic stability and growth are not compromised in the process, will be key in bolstering Africa’s efforts to reduce its unhealthy reliance on international debt markets.

Many African countries receive a much lower proportion of their GDP in tax than do countries on other continents, according to a report by the Organisation for Co-operation and Economic Development (OECD). The report, which covers tax revenue data for 30 African countries between 1990 and 2018, shows that the average tax-to-GDP ratio for the 30 African countries was 16.5% in 2018. This compared with an average of 34.3% in the 38 OECD member states; and 23.1% for the Latin American and Caribbean nations.

Calls for global financial architecture reform grow louder

Africa’s challenge in collecting sufficient taxes partly stems from international firms exploiting loopholes in the global taxation system to evade paying taxes on the continent, leading African countries to an unhealthy reliance on international debt markets.

“A new global tax system attentive to the needs of the global south is a key priority,” notes Brahima Coulibaly, vice president and director of global economy and development, Brookings Institution. There are positive signs that the global taxation system is moving toward greater equity. Last year, an Africa-backed resolution at the United Nations (UN) paved the way for transferring control of international tax rules from the OECD – comprising 38 wealthy countries – to the UN. This shift ensures that all 193 member states are on a more equal footing, giving African countries a fairer chance at shaping outcomes on negotiations relating to international taxation.

Continue reading IMF projects improved growth for Africa but debt and limited taxes still prompt concern →