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World Bank: Developing countries on path to debt crisis and lost decade

Only quick and coordinated action by debtor governments, private and official creditors, and multilateral financial institutions will prevent a lost decade for poorer countries, says the World Bank.

 

Developing countries are on a “path to crisis” and face another “lost decade” unless more support from creditors is forthcoming, says the World Bank.

Developing nations spent a record $443.5bn to service their external public and publicly guaranteed debt in 2022, the World Bank’s 50th International Debt Report shows. Debt-service payments – which include principal and interest – increased by 5% over the previous year for all developing countries as global interest rates remain at four-decade highs.

This week, African Business reported that Ethiopia could became the latest African nation to default on its debt after missing a bond payment. It would join Ghana and Zambia’s as Africa’s latest debt defaulters.

“Record debt levels and high interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president.

“Every quarter that interest rates stay high results in more developing countries becoming distressed – and facing the difficult choice of servicing their public debts or investing in public health, education, and infrastructure.

“The situation warrants quick and coordinated action by debtor governments, private and official creditors, and multilateral financial institutions – more transparency, better debt sustainability tools, and swifter restructuring arrangements. The alternative is another lost decade.’’

The report says that interest payments consume an increasingly large share of low-income countries’ expenditure, and more than a third of their external debt involves variable interest rates that could rise suddenly.

“Many of these countries face an additional burden: the accumulated principal, interest, and fees they incurred for the privilege of debt-service suspension under the G-20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative. The stronger US dollar is adding to their difficulties, making it even more expensive for countries to make payments. Under the circumstances, a further rise in interest rates or a sharp drop in export earnings could push them over the edge,” the Bank writes.

The trends were reflected in debt servicing costs accumulated by countries eligible to borrow from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), which supports the poorest nations. The 75 eligible countries paid a record $88.9bn in debt servicing costs in 2022.

Over the past decade, interest payments by these countries have quadrupled to an all-time high of $23.6bn in 2022. Overall debt-servicing costs for the 24 poorest countries are expected to balloon in 2023 and 2024 by as much as 39%, the report finds.

The report notes that IDA-eligible countries have spent the last decade adding to their debt at a pace that exceeds their economic growth, which the Bank says is “a red flag for their prospects in the coming years”.

From 2012 through 2022, IDA-eligible countries increased their external debt by 134%, outstripping the 53% increase they achieved in their gross national income.

Financing options dwindle

As debt-servicing costs have climbed, new financing options for developing countries have dwindled. In 2022, new external loan commitments to public and publicly guaranteed entities in these countries dropped by 23% to $371bn, the lowest level in a decade.

Private creditors largely abstained from developing countries, receiving $185bn more in principal repayments than they disbursed in loans. That marked the first time since 2015 that private creditors have received more funds than they put into developing countries.

New bonds issued by all developing countries in international markets dropped by more than half from 2021 to 2022, and issuances by low-income countries fell by more than three-quarters. New bond issuance by IDA-eligible countries fell by more than three-quarters to $3.1bn.

Source: African Business, 14th December 2023

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Africa’s most active startup investor, Techstars, Announces 12 new investments through its Africa- focused program in partnership with ARM Labs

 Techstars, the most active startup investor in Africa, has announced its second cohort of 12 companies to participate in its pan-African accelerator program in partnership with Lagos-based innovation program, ARM Labs. Following a successful inaugural program, the ARM Labs Lagos Techstars Accelerator will build upon its commitment to helping entrepreneurs that are changing Africa and the world.

The 2023 cohort, selected from over a thousand applications, delivers tech-enabled solutions across various verticals in Sub-Saharan Africa. The sourcing and selection was led by Managing Director for the accelerator, Oyin Solebo. It culminated in a screening committee joined by fellow directors at Techstars, executive leaders at ARM – Jumoke Ogundare, Sadiq Mohammed, Wale Odutola, Uche Azubuike and Ina Alogwu; as well as selected invited seasoned investors – Nneka Eze of Vested World, Maya Horgan Famodu of Ingressive Capital, Olumide Soyombo of Voltron Capital and Dotun Olowoporuku of Ventures Platform.

For its first cohort, the program had initially focused on companies operating in FinTech and PropTech, but this year expanded to focus more broadly on entrepreneurs that are changing Africa and the world, by using technology, data and intelligence to serve a population growing in size, youth, income and digital access. Sectors invested in include FinTech, Logistics, E-commerce, HealthTech, Renewable Energy, and Future of Work.  The cohort comprises startups operating in Ghana, Nigeria and East Africa, and has four teams with at least one female co-founder.

The 14-week immersive program will see Techstars invest up to $120,000 in funding in each startup as well as provide them with access to over $400,000 in cash equivalent hosting, accounting and legal support and other benefits worth more than $5M. The selected startups will also receive tailored mentorship, world-class company-building support, lifetime access to the Techstars worldwide network and targeted interactions with prospective investors to ensure that the continuum of follow-up capital is available as they grow. By partnering with ARM Labs, founders are also exposed to ARM’s local network, research and insights and decades long financial advisory expertise.

The selected companies are, in alphabetical order:

  • 24Seven, founded by Olufemi Idowu, is an asset-light marketplace that enables small businesses and convenience stores to order inventory on credit with one-hour doorstep delivery

  • Beauty Hut leverages technology to bridge the gap between beauty brands and consumers through efficient product distribution and marketing channels, via their e-commerce web-store and mobile app. It is founded by Subuola Oyeleye

  • Eight Medical, by Dr. Ibukun Tunde-Oni, is an end-to-end platform that connects users in need to emergency medical resources (such as hospitals, ambulances, personnel, information & credit), reducing waiting times from an average of 3 hours to 10 minutes or less

  • GetEquity facilitates access to investment opportunities by SEC-accredited providers, reducing entry barriers through investment aggregation across various asset classes. It is founded by Jude Dike, Temitope Ekundayo and Chigozirim Ugochukwu

  • JumpnPass, by Tunde Ademuyiwa and Qudus Quadry, is a mobile self-checkout platform for modern retail in Africa. They enable shoppers to use their smartphones to effortlessly scan product barcodes, pay for items, and skip long queues

  • One Plan helps workers in Africa’s informal economy create affordable financial plans, making it easier to start a retirement plan, access low-interest credit, and access health + life insurance cover. It is founded by Harold Awuah-Darko.

  • PBR Life Sciences offers pharmaceutical, consumer healthcare and medical device companies fast and easy access to high-quality market data and insights, helping them make objective decisions on product pricing, volumes and company strategy. The company is founded by Ayodeji Alaran

  • PressOne Africa provides African businesses with deeper insights into phone conversations with customers through a communication platform that provides conversation intelligence and call monitoring. It is led by Mayowa Okegbenle, Opeyemi Shokunbi and Unoma Adeyemi

  • Rana democratises access to clean and reliable solar systems for SMEs and residential customers through affordable long-term solar subscriptions, replacing the need for expensive, unreliable, and toxic backup generators. The company is founded by Abraham Mohammed and Mubarak Popoola.

  • Surge Africa, founded by Kumar Shourav and Ebrahim Essop, allows individuals, micro-entrepreneurs and MSMEs in Africa to make instant cross-border transfers and pay up to 80% less in fees

  • Swoove empowers logistics companies in emerging markets to digitise and scale their businesses with dispatch automation, fleet management, tracking and telematics, and a wide delivery network. It is led by Kwaku Tabiri, Kingsley Amponsah, Gloria Pascucci, Robert Quainoo and Kevin Blankson

  • Veend, founded by Olufemi Olanipekun and Ebenezer Ajayi, enables individuals and businesses with verifiable income to access funds on-demand, addressing their needs for emergency funds or working capital

Oyin Solebo, Managing Director, ARM Labs Lagos Techstars Accelerator commented, ‘Our second cohort truly showcases, and perhaps also epitomises, the wealth of talent, innovation and ingenuity that can be found within the African tech ecosystem. Supporting this group in reaching their full potential feels like the perfect segway following the close and success of the inaugural cohort.  The current market dynamics means that founders need a combination of financial support as well as technical assistance and access to networks in order to build resilient businesses. We are glad to be able to provide comprehensive support that covers this entire spectrum.’

In addition to the Techstars-led program, the cohort receive mentorship sessions with notable experts in the African tech ecosystem providing them with comprehensive guidance and specialised services to support their growth journey. These experts include Tunde Kehinde – Founder/CEO, Lidya, Bode Abifarin – Chief Operating Officer at Flutterwave, Tingting Peng – Chief Capital & Strategy Officer at Moove, Kevin Simmons – Partner, LoftyInc, Lola Esan – Partner, EY, Yischai Beinisch – Head, West Africa – Emerging Market Power, Shell Energy Europe & Africa.

Dr. Ibukun Tunde-Oni, Founder of Eight Medical who echoed the sentiments of the cohort stated, ‘Securing a spot in the ARM Labs Lagos Techstars Accelerator program has signified an important milestone in the growth of my company. More than anything else I believe it has demonstrated an absolute vote of confidence by experts who have accessed our model and track record and also estimated our impending growth potential. The learning experience has so far been invaluable and I am eagerly looking forward to our next phase of business.’

Oluwadunni Fanibe, Program Manager, added, ‘Techstars’ tried and trusted model has been instrumental in building thousands of successful companies, all over the world. We are excited with the opportunity to implement this proven playbook of support, networks, knowledge base, experiences, technology and data, on our 2023 cohort and are confident they can replicate the same notable successes of their local and global predecessors.’

Ina Alogwu, Group Director, Digital Transformation, ARM noted ‘Programs like the ARM Labs Lagos Techstars Accelerator enable us to comprehend, champion, and actively contribute to the growth of technology-driven solutions emerging throughout Africa, and we are thrilled to be on this journey for the second year running in collaboration with our valued partners.’

The program will conclude with an invite-only Demo day on February 22nd, 2024 where founders will showcase their progress. Register here to attend.

Source,  Africa Business, 15th December 2023

 

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US Invests in Africa in Effort to Counter Chinese Influence

US President Joe Biden listens as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, left, speaks during the closing session at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit on promoting food security and food systems resilience in Washington, Dec. 15, 2022.

The United States has struck hundreds of deals worth $14.2 billion with African nations over the past year as Washington tries to counter growing influence on the continent by China.

The 547 new trade and investment agreements represent a 67% increase from 2022 in the number and value of closed deals, according to British Robinson, coordinator for the Prosper Africa trade and business initiative, a program that connects U.S. and African businesses.

Robinson said the presidential and national security initiative is aimed at strengthening strategic and economic partnerships by mobilizing two-way trade and investment flow, and young people are key to realizing that goal.

“The U.S. business and investment community is increasingly recognizing Africa’s extraordinary market potential and dynamism. The continent is home to the world’s youngest population, an asset that creates significant opportunities for viable business deals that create jobs and foster shared prosperity,” Robinson said during a December 12 virtual media briefing.

Judd Devermont, U.S. National Security Council senior director for African Affairs, said it has been a record-setting year for U.S.-Africa relations, with the United States following through on its commitment to invest some $55 billion over three years.

“As we wind down 2023, we have already delivered on more than 40% of this commitment. In fact, by the end of year two, we anticipate surpassing 70% of our goal, if not more,” Devermont said. “With these resources, we’ve expanded our trade and investment; we have advanced major food and health security partnerships; charted a course for digital transformation; forged new security and good governance cooperation; and catalyzed landmark diaspora-driven engagement.”

The briefing was held to mark the one-year anniversary of the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, where Biden pledged to go “all in” on the continent.

The announcement comes as Washington works to deepen its engagement with Africa, where China has been expanding its influence with infrastructure, investment, loans, among other initiatives.

Devermont, President Joe Biden’s top Africa adviser, said Africa is not only important economically but politically, adding the U.S. has been pushing for more African voices on the world stage for some time.

“President Biden last year called for the African Union to become a permanent member of the G20, and in September we proudly welcomed this development,” Devermont said. “We’re now advocating for a third seat for the —for Sub-Saharan Africa on the IMF board, and of course we reiterate our call for permanent representation for Africa at the UN Security Council.”

The U.S. has had to alter its investment and trade strategies in countries affected by conflict. U.S. Department of State Bureau of African Affairs Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Jonathan Pratt said that, in Sudan, U.S. policy has been to put sanctions in place. “Sanctions haven’t just been on individuals; they’ve also been on companies and different asset classes. And so that’s one strategy that we’ve used in conflict countries and locations,” he said.

Pratt said in Niger, one of several countries hit by military coups and violence, the United States is prioritizing peace through negotiations.

“We’ve been very supporting of the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) sanctions that have been put in place. And then to support that effort we have leveraged our own assistance and investments, which we’ve announced very clearly, if the country and the leadership there turns back to a democratic path, we’re willing to explore progressively lifting that freeze in assistance and potential investments,” Pratt said, adding that the U.S. also uses “a combination of sanctions plus leveraging our engagement and assistance.”

Devermont agreed saying that trade investment has been an important part of the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit.

“One of the most important initiatives that has come out of the continent in the last couple years has been the Africa free – Continental Free Trade Area. And we signed an MOU with the AfCFTA at this summit because the goals of the AfCFTA to unite 1.3 billion people in a single market and to trade a nominal GDP that’s larger than India’s is a huge boon. And in that process, harmonizing regulations, reducing trade and non-trade barriers, that will benefit all countries whether they are experiencing a crisis or not.”

Devermont said the U.S. is also looking at the underlying drivers of conflict, and is investing in new approaches, including elevating its focus on elections and anti-corruption measures.

Source: VOA, 14th December 2023

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Africa’s development dynamics 2023 – Investing in sustainable development

Africa Map Images - Free Download on Freepik

Africa’s sustainable financing gap until 2030 is about USD 1.6 trillion. According to this report’s estimates, the continent needs additional financing of about USD 194 billion annually to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. This annual sustainable financing gap is equivalent to 7% of Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 34% of its investments in 2021. The annual gap equals less than 0.2% of the global and 10.5% of the African-held stock of financial assets.

African economies hold unique assets to close the continent’s sustainable financing gap:

  • Real GDP growth is estimated to return to the levels before COVID-19, at 3.7% in 2023, the second highest rate in the world after developing Asia (5%) and before Latin America and the Caribbean (1.6%). The growth is estimated at 4.9% in East Africa, 4.3% in Central Africa, 4% in North Africa, 3.8% in West Africa and 1.4% in Southern Africa.

  • The proportion of African youth completing an upper-secondary or tertiary education could reach 34% by 2040, up from 23% in 2020 and 18% in 2010. Africa has the world’s youngest population, with a median age of 19 years, compared to 30 for Latin America and the Caribbean, 31 for developing Asia and 42 for Europe.

  • Natural resources represent key assets for African economies. Natural capital accounts for 19% of Africa’s total wealth compared to 7% for Latin America and the Caribbean and 3% for developing Asia. From 2011 to 2020, African forests increased the global carbon stock by 11.6 million kilotons of CO2-equivalent net emissions, while carbon stocks in forests outside Africa declined by 13 million kilotons.

  • Africa’s domestic financial resources hold a large potential for sustainable development. Domestic government revenues amounted to USD 466 billion in 2021, equivalent to 17% of GDP, and assets held by African institutional investors amounted to USD 1.8 trillion in 2020, equivalent to 73% of GDP. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, intra-Africa foreign direct investment was three times more resilient than foreign direct investment from outside the continent, boosting growth in renewable energies and in information and communications technology.

Despite this potential, global crises are affecting investment in Africa more than in other regions. The average inflation rate for the continent is projected to reach 15.5% in 2023 – the highest level in 27 years – with peaks above 15% in 11 African countries. As of February 2023, 8 African countries were in debt distress (out of 9 globally), and 13 were at a high risk of debt distress (out of 27 globally). Africa’s share of global greenfield foreign direct investment has been on a downward trend in recent years, dropping to 6% in 2020-21 (the lowest share in 17 years), while high-income countries in other parts of the world have recorded their highest share ever (61%), compared to 17% for developing Asia and 10% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

The cost of capital in Africa has risen above the levels in other world regions, pricing some African governments out of bond markets while thwarting investments in transformational sectors such as renewable energy. The spread on an average African Eurobond (a measure for the potential cost of sovereign borrowing) reached a 15-year high of about 10 percentage points in September 2022, eclipsing previous peaks. In 2021, the average cost of capital for energy projects was about seven times higher in Africa than in Europe and North America. While experienced investors attain higher average returns in Africa than in other world regions, the lack of reliable information and data is an important barrier to new investments.

To increase resilience to external shocks and improve investor confidence, African policy makers can work with international partners and African civil society to mobilise investments towards Agenda 2063 and sustainable development. The international community must follow through on commitments on debt restructuring and climate finance. African governments, development partners, the private sector and civil society must work closer together to improve Africa’s investment landscape. This report proposes three key policy priorities to accelerate sustainable investments on the continent:

  • More and better data will reduce transaction costs, improve sustainability assessments and increase investor confidence. In 2021, less than a third of African countries (30%) had a fully funded statistical plan, compared to almost half the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (44%) and in developing Asia (47%). Improved macroeconomic data may help align risk perception with real risks. Partnerships with business associations or academic institutions can allow government agencies to share industry data that inform investors’ risk assessments at lower cost. African governments can also facilitate sustainability assessments through disclosure requirements and the provision of training and incentives to smaller firms with limited capacity.

  • Strengthening the capacity of Africa’s large development finance network will improve the allocation of sustainable finance. The 102 African development finance institutions (DFIs) can act as intermediaries between international finance and local projects, in line with national development agendas. The international community can channel more resources to well-managed DFIs and deliver on existing obligations, for instance, by increasing the allocation of climate adaptation finance. African governments and DFIs can also scale up the use of innovative de-risking and financing tools, including green, social, sustainability, and sustainability-linked bonds or local currency financing solutions emerging in many countries. Developing and interconnecting capital markets and stock exchanges will contribute to the growth of African firms.

  • Regional integration policies will improve and harmonise Africa’s investment landscape. Cross-border initiatives such as development corridors and digital infrastructures can reduce trade frictions and market fragmentation. At the same time, small and medium-sized enterprises need targeted support to seize investment opportunities along regional value chains. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Investment Protocol aims to harmonise the African investment policy landscape but requires effective monitoring mechanisms and public-private alliances.

The five regional chapters of this report highlight how African regions can accelerate sustainable investments in strategic sectors. African regions can better leverage their unique assets to accelerate sustainable development and productive transformation. Regional case studies propose ways of operationalising the continental policy recommendations in specific sectors.

Policy recommendations to accelerate sustainable investments in African regions

Region

Case study

Policy recommendations

Southern Africa

Renewable energies

  • Harmonise regulatory frameworks and accelerate regional initiatives on renewable energy infrastructures

  • Enhance public-private alliances and development finance based on national energy priorities

  • Adopt targeted policy solutions to scale up off-grid renewable energy projects in rural areas

Central Africa

Natural ecosystems

  • Improve natural capital accounting to better inform investors and stakeholders

  • Establish institutional frameworks for the monetisation of natural ecosystems

  • Ensure local ownership when developing innovative financing mechanisms

East Africa

Renewable energies

  • Enhance regulatory frameworks and energy utilities’ capacity to improve investor confidence

  • Strengthen local financial institutions to catalyse resources for renewable energy projects

  • Support the growth of innovative enterprises through regional integration policies like the AfCFTA

North Africa

Climate finance

  • Improve assessment of financing needs based on national and multi-sectorial priorities

  • Adopt and implement inclusive regulatory frameworks on sustainable finance

  • Encourage the development of sustainable finance markets (nationally and regionally)

West Africa

Agri-food value chains

  • Increase smallholder farmers’ access to financial products focused on productivity and sustainability

  • Strengthen regional agricultural policies and place-based programmes like agro-industrial parks

  • Support food security and agricultural practices through agro-poles, incubators and technical partnerships

Source:  OECD 2023

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African businesses are positive about the AfCFTA – but want to know more

Optimism about the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is high among African CEOs, according to the latest survey by the Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC).

The Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC) has launched its annual Africa CEO Trade Survey, which gives a snapshot of sentiments among Africa’s business leaders and is intended to inform decision-making by African public policymakers. This year, over 1000 CEOs from 44 countries, the largest sample ever, participated in the survey. The report shows that while inflation and access to finance remain of great concern to businesses in Africa, many are optimistic about the prospects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Presenting the results at the virtual launch of the report in a webinar on 21 November, Professor Patrick Utomi, chairperson of PAFTRAC and policy consultant to the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), noted that the majority of the sample were small businesses, and about 35% had been in operation for five years or less. This, he said, reflects the fact that about 80% of businesses in Africa are in the small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) category.

While rising debt and global security issues were of concern, high inflation was the major concern that interviewees had. “Overwhelmingly, inflation is seen as having the most significant impact on the continent and its businesses,”

Free trade spurs optimism

Despite the challenges, the survey indicates that optimism regarding the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is high. Over 50% of businesses anticipate a positive impact, while “about 24% think it will have a moderate effect on their business, and 18% think it would have little effect, or did not know what impact it would have on their businesses,” Utomi said.

Another common hurdle highlighted by the survey is access to finance, which affects the ability of businesses across sectors to operate and to scale up their operations. Utomi noted that agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation firms particularly identify financing as a major hindrance. “It goes to show that if financing does not exist, then anything else we’re speaking about, whether it is cross-border trade, unification or AfCFTA, would amount to nothing more than rhetoric,” Utomi stressed.

As in previous surveys, a notable concern was the lack of adequate information on the AfCFTA. “Most of them did not know what the AfCFTA was, what it meant for their businesses or, more importantly, how to tap into it,” Utomi said, stressing that without this information, SMEs in particular would be left out of the AfCFTA because they would not know how to engage with it and access the benefits they could derive from doing so.

In response to these concerns, Utomi said, the report makes a number of recommendations, which focus on boosting value-added production; providing more information on AfCFTA opportunities; creating forums for SME engagement with policymakers; incentivising cross-border aggregators; and fostering collaboration between the private sector and development institutions. The report also highlights the need for capacity improvement, structures for businesses to access financing, and continuous monitoring and evaluation of AfCFTA implementation for a prosperous future of trade in Africa.

The presentation was followed by a panel discussion with Professor Utomi; Gwendoline Abunaw, managing director of Ecobank Cameroon; Geoffrey White, CEO of Agility Africa; and Amit Agrawal, Ghana country head at Olam Agri. The discussion was moderated by Pedro Besugo, head of business development at Invest Africa.

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Access to finance is critical

Utomi welcomed the report’s findings, saying “it is an important affirmation of something that we know, which is the problem of access to finance being a major challenge, especially for cross-border trade.” He noted that inflation also remains a major challenge, arising from recent trends and supply chain crises related to the Covid-19 pandemic. This, he said, has had a significant impact on the capacity of small scale businesses to deal with the commitments they have.

Utomi also underscored the significance of information availability and the role of aggregators in facilitating efficient trade and emphasised the need for SMEs to recognise the benefits of collaboration and aggregation across borders, which he said could give them the kind of volume that would make them significant global players. He stressed that PAFTRAC will continue to play its advocacy role and work with policymakers to create the conditions most conducive to business and trade on the continent.

Reacting to findings from the report which indicate that central Africa is the least dynamic region in the continent, Abunaw said that “The flows are not at the level that they should be. And it actually shows that there has been a regression or it has been stagnant,” she said. Other obstacles to regional trade, Abunaw said, are inadequate transportation links, economic and physical integration barriers, and complex customs and tax regimes. “Trade liberalisation would definitely boost economic growth and poverty alleviation,” she argued. She pointed to efforts by financial institutions such as Ecobank to facilitate money transfers and to support small and medium-sized players in cross-border trade, while emphasising the crucial role of political will in addressing infrastructure, tariffs, and trade-related decisions among participating countries.

White said he was most heartened by the enthusiasm shown for the AfCFTA, which has the potential to create a market of 1.3bn people, growing to 2.4bn over the next 25 years. “The concept of the AfCFTA is strong and so beneficial for everyone,” he said. He noted that his company, Agility Africa, which is building warehouses across Africa, will make it easier for local and foreign businesses to operate in Africa.

Trade promotes local production

Following Covid-19, companies are keen to produce locally to obviate challenges associated with moving goods across long distances. Creating a larger market through the AfCFTA would make Africa a more attractive destination. “If you can actually move goods across the borders easily and seamlessly and in one trade bloc, West Africa, for example, becomes a 500m-person market,” he noted.

Commenting on intra-regional trade, Agrawal noted that the Economic Community of West African States is a good example of a regional trade bloc that works. “The Ecowas regime works actually pretty well in terms of documentation, acceptance across borders, zero duty and entry into various markets within the Ecowas zone,” he said. It also has a good road network that enables the transport of goods from Ghana as far as Niger and Benin, for example.

With regard to the AfCFTA, he observed that uneven tariff regimes are likely to be the biggest stumbling block to its successful implementation. Increasing intra-regional trade will also depend, in large measure, on expansion of the road infrastructure, Agrawal said, pointing out that, in some cases, it is more cost-effective to transport goods from Asia to Africa than between African countries.

He proposed a phased approach to implementation, beginning with making regional blocs function more smoothly. “I think the first thing that the African Union can do is to make the regional blocs work very smoothly. There is a lot of scope to make them work better,” he urged.

On how to improve regional trade, Abunaw stressed the importance of facilitating the movement of people within sub-regional blocks and across Africa as a whole. Streamlining visa procedures, she said, would discourage the use of informal routes.

She also suggested that “if people know what they’re supposed to pay, and we can actually digitalise it, it becomes formalised and transparent and it would also greatly improve the flows.” She suggested that parity in currencies would mean that traders do not need to go through a foreign currency to buy across borders. Finally, she advocated for capacity building and increasing production, underscoring the need to provide knowledge and promote the use of initiatives from development banks and governments.

 

……

Source: AfricanBusiness, 6th December 2023

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