All posts by Michael Patotschka

Angola, Nigeria

Nigeria Reclaims Africa’s Top Oil Producer Spot

Chineme Okafor in Abuja

Nigeria may have reclaimed its position as Africa’s top oil producer which it lost to fellow African oil producer, Angola earlier in March 2016.

According to the December 2016 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), crude oil production from Nigeria rose slightly above that of Angola even before the January 2017 planned production cut agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
Angola would be expected to cut about 78,000 barrels per day (bd) of its production in the agreement which was sealed in late 2016.

But secondary sources in the MOMR indicated that in November, Nigeria and Angola produced 1.692 million barrels (mb) of oil apiece. Similarly, information from primary sources in the MOMR stated that Nigeria produced 1.782mb of oil as against Angola’s 1.688mb to show its takeover of Angola by about 94,000bd.

“According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production in November increased by 151tb/d compared to the previous month to average 33.87mb/d. Crude oil output increased the most in Angola, Nigeria and Libya, while production in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia showed the largest decline.
“A new OPEC-14 production target of 32.5mb/d as per 1 January 2017 represents a reduction of around 1.2mb/d from October production levels,” said OPEC’s December MOMR.

Earlier in the year when Nigeria lost its position as Africa’s largest producer, its output fell to about 1.677mb, as against Angola’s 1.782mb then.

The development was made possible by repeated attacks on Nigerian oil infrastructure by militants in the Niger Delta. This dragged the country’s daily oil production down by about 700,000bd as reported by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in July, and further confirmed by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu.
Though Nigeria is still far from recovering to its full capacity, it has also secured a production cap exemption from the rest of OPEC and non-OPEC members on the basis of the attacks on her oil infrastructure.

The Niger Delta Avengers, which is majorly responsible for the production disruption, claimed it was fighting for socioeconomic equality in the region. Although, the group and other militants in the region agreed to a ceasefire against further attacks in September 2016, they have however indicated their intentions to resume hostilities following their claims of government’s indifference to their demands.

While a committee responsible for monitoring whether the agreed upon cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members are being made will meet in Vienna on 21 and 22 January to hash out a way to monitor compliance with the deal, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Venezuela are already honouring the commitment to cut output.

Source: Thisday, January 10th, 1017

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail
General

Is the worst of Africa’s downturn really over?

Is the worst of Africa’s downturn really over?

The president of the AfDB predicted that Africa’a economies will grow by 3,7 % in 2017, but some find this forecast overoptimistic.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) believes that Africa is over the worst of the economic downturn. As a big lender to African projects, it is obviously in the Bank’s best interests to talk up the continent’s economic prospects.

Speaking to Bloomberg in late September of 2016 AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina said “We have a situation of economic headwinds but African economies are quite resilient. We have 19 countries growing at 3- 5 % and 21 countries growing over 5 %. Afica isn’t falling apart. The ‘Africa Rising Story’ isn’t over”.

The AfDB forecasts continental growth of 3,5 % this year, rising to 3,7 % in 2017 and 4,2 % in 2018. There is therefore unlikely to be a return to the 6,8 % growth of sub-Saharan Africa averaged between 2003 and 2008 but the Bank does expect GDP to outpace the population rise, giving figures that can best be described as “modes”.

Whatever the rate of continental growth, the overall figure is almost certain to be dragged down by the two biggest economies in sub-Saharan Africa, with South-Africa stagnant and Nigeria in its first recession for a quarter of a century.

The IMF certainly does not agree with these projections. In October it cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa for 2016 to 1,4 %, which would be the lowest rate this century. The IMF’s breakdown of growth rates is particularly interesting. It forecasts an average of 0,3 % this year for the resource rich countries, while those without such natural resources will grow by an average if 5,6 %.

Source: African Business, December 2016

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail
General

Africa Mobile Subscriptions hits 725 million

Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa Top List

The ongoing GSMA 360 Africa Mobile Conference holding in Dar Es Salaam in Tanzania, has predicted that mobile subscription in Africa would reach 725 million in 2020, up from its current penetration level of 500 million, with Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa, topping the list of highest number of mobile subscription on the African continent.

Nigeria’s mobile subscription, which currently stands at over 160 million, has been adjudged as the fastest growing telecoms market in Africa and the world.

Director General, GSMA Mobile 360 Series, Mr. Mats Granryd, who announced the growth rate of mobile subscription in Africa, said the forecast to reach 725 million by 2020, accounted for 54 per cent of the expected population of Africa.

The prediction, he said was hinged on some trends that are currently driving mobile subscription in Africa.

“African mobile subscribers are rapidly migrating to mobile broadband networks and services, a result of ongoing network rollouts and the increasing availability of affordable mobile broadband devices and tariffs. Mobile broadband (3G/4G) accounted for just over a quarter of total connections at the end of 2015, but is expected to account for almost two-thirds by 2020,” Granryd said.

According to him, by mid2016, there were 72 live 4G networks in 32 countries across Africa, half of which have launched in the last two years. The number of smartphone connections in Africa is forecast to more than triple over the next five years, rising from 226 million in 2015 to 720 million by 2020, Granryd added.

The predictions were the outcome of a recent research carried out by GSMA 360 Africaand made public in Tanzania.

According to the report, mobile’s contribution to African GDP, Jobs and public funding, were expected to rise.

The use of mobile technologies and services across Africa, generated $153 billion in economic value last year, equivalent to 6.7 per cent of the region’s GDP. The contribution, according to Granryd, would increase to $214 billion by 2020, which is 7.6 per cent of expected GDP as countries in Africa continue to benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services. The report said Africa’s mobile ecosystem also supported 3.8 million jobs in 2015 and made a $17 billion contribution to the public sector via general taxation. The number of jobs supported is forecast to rise to 4.5 million by 2020, while the tax contribution is expected to increase to $20.5 billion.

The report also explains how mobile is powering innovation and entrepreneurship across Africa. It notes that there are now approximately 310 active tech hubs across the region, including 180 accelerators/ incubators. Mobile operators are supporting this ecosystem by opening up new services to third-party developers in areas such as messaging, billing, location and mobile money, which has allowed start-ups to scale quickly.

Source: Thisday, 28th July, 2016

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail
South Africa

South Africa slips to Africa’s third-largest economy

South-Africa has been known as the continent’s second largest economy since Nigeria rebased its gross domestic product (GDP) data in early 2014. However, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, released in mid April 2016, revealed that the South African economy is now only the third-largest economy on the continent after Nigeria und new silver medallist Egypt.

By the end of 2015, Nigeria’s GDP was estimated at US$ 490 billion, followed by Egypt with US$ 324 billion and South-Africa with US$ 313 billion.

Egypt overtook South Africa mainly owing to the slump of its currency, the Rand. As a result, the nominal dollar value of South Africa’s GDP has dropped by an average of almost 7 percent a year over the past four years.

South Africa, however, remains the continent’s most developed economy and has a more diversified base than any other on the continent. It is ranked as an upper-middle-income economy by the World Bank –   one of the only four countries in Africa (alongside Botswana, Gabon and Mauritius).

Source: African Courier, June/July 2016

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail
General

Africa’s phone users reach 700 million

Mobile phone subscriptions are now almost eight times higher in Africa than in 2000, reaching about 700 million. According to a new report by the International  Telecommunications Union, mobile technology has played a crucial role in promoting financial inclusion in sub Saharan Africa, where fewer than 20 per cent of households have access to formal financial services. … Mobile phone banking services are especially prevalent in Kenya and penetration rates are also relatively high in Uganda and Tanzania. The other countries with high mobile money account penetration rates are Côte d’Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Rwanda and South Africa.

Regulaory reforms and liberalization have also benefited local mobile operators, with countries such as Ghana, Nigeria and Tanzania having more than five local operators.

The report said sub Sahara Afric’s greatest development change is to move from an economic growth path based on commodity exports to a more sustainable industrial and services path. The mobile technology revolution can support and underpin this economic diversifications, experts say.

Source: African Courier, June/July 2016

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail