The African Devolopment Bank has announced it plans to invest $12bn over the next five years under its new electrification program. The money will support its flagship New Deal on Energy for Africa Inititiative, which seeks to achieve universal access to power by 2025. More than 600m people in Africa are estimated to currently lack such access.
Source: African Business, May 2017
Africa’s second largest oil producer has set 23rd August 2017 as the date of historic general elections that will see president José Eduardo dos Santos step down after 38 years in power. He will, however, retain control of the ruling MPLA, a party which has selected defence Minister João Lourenço as its candidate in the election.
Source: African Business, May 2017
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Nigeria may have reclaimed its position as Africa’s top oil producer which it lost to fellow African oil producer, Angola earlier in March 2016.
According to the December 2016 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), crude oil production from Nigeria rose slightly above that of Angola even before the January 2017 planned production cut agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
Angola would be expected to cut about 78,000 barrels per day (bd) of its production in the agreement which was sealed in late 2016.
But secondary sources in the MOMR indicated that in November, Nigeria and Angola produced 1.692 million barrels (mb) of oil apiece. Similarly, information from primary sources in the MOMR stated that Nigeria produced 1.782mb of oil as against Angola’s 1.688mb to show its takeover of Angola by about 94,000bd.
“According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production in November increased by 151tb/d compared to the previous month to average 33.87mb/d. Crude oil output increased the most in Angola, Nigeria and Libya, while production in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia showed the largest decline.
“A new OPEC-14 production target of 32.5mb/d as per 1 January 2017 represents a reduction of around 1.2mb/d from October production levels,” said OPEC’s December MOMR.
Earlier in the year when Nigeria lost its position as Africa’s largest producer, its output fell to about 1.677mb, as against Angola’s 1.782mb then.
The development was made possible by repeated attacks on Nigerian oil infrastructure by militants in the Niger Delta. This dragged the country’s daily oil production down by about 700,000bd as reported by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in July, and further confirmed by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu.
Though Nigeria is still far from recovering to its full capacity, it has also secured a production cap exemption from the rest of OPEC and non-OPEC members on the basis of the attacks on her oil infrastructure.
The Niger Delta Avengers, which is majorly responsible for the production disruption, claimed it was fighting for socioeconomic equality in the region. Although, the group and other militants in the region agreed to a ceasefire against further attacks in September 2016, they have however indicated their intentions to resume hostilities following their claims of government’s indifference to their demands.
While a committee responsible for monitoring whether the agreed upon cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members are being made will meet in Vienna on 21 and 22 January to hash out a way to monitor compliance with the deal, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Venezuela are already honouring the commitment to cut output.
Source: Thisday, January 10th, 1017
Is the worst of Africa’s downturn really over?
The president of the AfDB predicted that Africa’a economies will grow by 3,7 % in 2017, but some find this forecast overoptimistic.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) believes that Africa is over the worst of the economic downturn. As a big lender to African projects, it is obviously in the Bank’s best interests to talk up the continent’s economic prospects.
Speaking to Bloomberg in late September of 2016 AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina said “We have a situation of economic headwinds but African economies are quite resilient. We have 19 countries growing at 3- 5 % and 21 countries growing over 5 %. Afica isn’t falling apart. The ‘Africa Rising Story’ isn’t over”.
The AfDB forecasts continental growth of 3,5 % this year, rising to 3,7 % in 2017 and 4,2 % in 2018. There is therefore unlikely to be a return to the 6,8 % growth of sub-Saharan Africa averaged between 2003 and 2008 but the Bank does expect GDP to outpace the population rise, giving figures that can best be described as “modes”.
Whatever the rate of continental growth, the overall figure is almost certain to be dragged down by the two biggest economies in sub-Saharan Africa, with South-Africa stagnant and Nigeria in its first recession for a quarter of a century.
The IMF certainly does not agree with these projections. In October it cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa for 2016 to 1,4 %, which would be the lowest rate this century. The IMF’s breakdown of growth rates is particularly interesting. It forecasts an average of 0,3 % this year for the resource rich countries, while those without such natural resources will grow by an average if 5,6 %.
Source: African Business, December 2016
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